0
Research Papers

Prospective Life Cycle Assessment Based on System Dynamics Approach: A Case Study on the Large-Scale Centrifugal Compressor

[+] Author and Article Information
Shitong Peng

Institute of Sustainable Design
and Manufacturing,
Dalian University of Technology,
Dalian 116024, China
e-mail: shi-tong.peng@ttu.edu

Tao Li

Institute of Sustainable Design
and Manufacturing,
Dalian University of Technology,
Dalian 116024, China
e-mail: litao@dlut.edu.cn

Yue Wang

Environmental and Ecological Engineering (EEE),
Purdue University,
500 Central Drive,
West Lafayette, IN 47907
e-mail: yuewang@purdue.edu

Zhichao Liu

Department of Industrial, Manufacturing,
& Systems Engineering,
Texas Tech University,
Lubbock, TX 79409-3061
e-mail: zhichao.liu@ttu.edu

George Z. Tan

Department of Industrial, Manufacturing,
& Systems Engineering,
Texas Tech University,
Lubbock, TX 79409-3061
e-mail: george.z.tan@ttu.edu

Hongchao Zhang

Department of Industrial, Manufacturing,
& Systems Engineering,
Texas Tech University,
Lubbock, TX 79409-3061
e-mail: hong-chao.zhang@ttu.edu

1Corresponding author.

Manuscript received April 5, 2018; final manuscript received November 5, 2018; published online December 24, 2018. Assoc. Editor: William Bernstein.

J. Manuf. Sci. Eng 141(2), 021003 (Dec 24, 2018) (11 pages) Paper No: MANU-18-1209; doi: 10.1115/1.4041950 History: Received April 05, 2018; Revised November 05, 2018

The deficiency of temporal information in life cycle assessment (LCA) may misrepresent the environmental impacts of products throughout the life cycle or at a particular time in the future. For the environmental assessment of energy-consuming products, background data obtained from the LCA database fail to incorporate emissions or extractions reflecting the future situation. To overcome this knowledge gap, we developed a system dynamics (SD) model to predict the evolution of energy structure in China till 2030 and further determined the time-varying emissions of unit electric power combined with the ecoinvent 3.1 database. Additionally, dynamic characterization factors (CFs) of global warming potential (GWP) were integrated into the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). This study took the PCL803 large-scale centrifugal compressor as an illustrative example in which the temporal-dependent electricity was included in the dynamic life cycle inventory and the dynamic CFs of GWP were included in the LCIA. Environmental impacts were quantified and compared using the traditional and prospective LCA. Results indicated that the environmental burdens under the electricity variation were approximately 13% less than those of conventional LCA, and the GWP under dynamic CFs would be further reduced by 14.5%. The results confirmed that, when socio-economic progress, technical improvement, and dynamic CFs are not considered, the environmental assessment will lead to an overestimation of environmental loads. Therefore, the relevant time-varying parameters should be considered for accurate assessment.

FIGURES IN THIS ARTICLE
<>
Copyright © 2019 by ASME
Your Session has timed out. Please sign back in to continue.

References

García-Gusano, D. , Garraín, D. , and Dufour, J. , 2017, “ Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of the Spanish Electricity Production,” Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev., 75, pp. 21–34. [CrossRef]
Jolliet, O. , Saade-Sbeih, M. , Shaked, S. , Jolliet, A. , and Crettaz, P. , 2016, Environmental Life Cycle Assessment, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.
Haapala, K. R. , Catalina, A. V. , Johnson, M. L. , and Sutherland, J. W. , 2012, “ Development and Application of Models for Steelmaking and Casting Environmental Performance,” ASME J. Manuf. Sci. Eng., 134(5), p. 051013. [CrossRef]
Haapala, K. R. , Zhao, F. , Camelio, J. , Sutherland, J. W. , Skerlos, S. J. , Dornfeld, D. A. , Jawahir, I. S. , Clarens, A. F. , and Rickli, J. L. , 2013, “ A Review of Engineering Research in Sustainable Manufacturing,” ASME J. Manuf. Sci. Eng., 135(4), p. 041013. [CrossRef]
Hellweg, S. , Hofstetter, T. B. , and Hungerbuhler, K. , 2003, “ Discounting and the Environment Should Current Impacts Be Weighted Differently Than Impacts Harming Future Generations?,” Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 8(1), pp. 8–18.
Yuan, C. , Wang, E. , Zhai, Q. , and Yang, F. , 2015, “ Temporal Discounting in Life Cycle Assessment: A Critical Review and Theoretical Framework,” Environ. Impact Assess. Rev., 51, pp. 23–31. [CrossRef]
Yuan, C. Y. , Simon, R. , Mady, N. , and Dornfeld, D. , 2009, “ Embedded Temporal Difference in Life Cycle Assessment: Case Study on VW Golf A4 Car,” IEEE International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technology, Phoenix, AZ, May 18–20, pp. 1–6.
Levasseur, A. , Lesage, P. , and Margni, M. , 2010, “ Dynamic LCA and Its Application to Global Warming Impact Assessment,” Environ. Sci. Technol., 44(8), pp. 3169–3174. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Levasseur, A. , Lesage, P. , Margni, M. , and Samson, R. , 2013, “ Biogenic Carbon and Temporary Storage Addressed With Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment,” J. Ind. Ecol., 17(1), pp. 117–128. [CrossRef]
Pinsonnault, A. , Lesage, P. , Levasseur, A. , and Samson, R. , 2014, “ Temporal Differentiation of Background Systems in LCA: Relevance of Adding Temporal Information in LCI Databases,” Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 19(11), pp. 1843–1853. [CrossRef]
Walser, T. , Demou, E. , Lang, D. J. , and Hellweg, S. , 2011, “ Prospective Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Nanosilver T-Shirts,” Environ. Sci. Technol., 45(10), pp. 4570–4578. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Aryapratama, R. , and Janssen, M. , 2017, “ Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of Bio-Based Adipic Acid Production From Forest Residues,” J. Cleaner Prod., 164, pp. 434–443. [CrossRef]
Yang, J. , and Chen, B. , 2014, “ Global Warming Impact Assessment of a Crop Residue Gasification Project—A Dynamic LCA Perspective,” Appl. Energy, 122, pp. 269–279. [CrossRef]
Su, S. , Li, X. , Zhu, Y. , and Lin, B. , 2017, “ Dynamic LCA Framework for Environmental Impact Assessment of Buildings,” Energy Build., 149, pp. 310–320. [CrossRef]
Collinge, W. O. , Landis, A. E. , Jones, A. K. , Schaefer, L. A. , and Bilec, M. M. , 2013, “ Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment: Framework and Application to an Institutional Building,” Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 18(3), pp. 538–552. [CrossRef]
European Commission—Joint Research Centre—Institute for Environment and, and Sustainability, 2010, “ International Reference Life Cycle Data System (ILCD) Handbook—General Guide for Life Cycle Assessment—Detailed Guidance,” Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.
Arvidsson, R. , Tillman, A.-M. , Sandén, B. A. , Janssen, M. , Nordelöf, A. , Kushnir, D. , and Molander, S. , 2017, “ Environmental Assessment of Emerging Technologies: Recommendations for Prospective LCA,” J. Ind. Ecol., 22(6), pp. 1–9.
Zanghelini, G. M. , Cherubini, E. , Orsi, P. , and Soares, S. R. , 2014, “ Waste Management Life Cycle Assessment: The Case of a Reciprocating Air Compressor in Brazil,” J. Cleaner Prod., 70, pp. 164–174. [CrossRef]
Peng, S. , Li, T. , Dong, M. , Shi, J. , and Zhang, H. , 2016, “ Life Cycle Assessment of a Large-Scale Centrifugal Compressor: A Case Study in China,” J. Cleaner Prod., 139, pp. 810–820. [CrossRef]
Yao, L. , Liu, T. , Chen, X. , Mahdi, M. , and Ni, J. , 2018, “ An Integrated Method of Life-Cycle Assessment and System Dynamics for Waste Mobile Phone Management and Recycling in China,” J. Cleaner Prod., 187, pp. 852–862. [CrossRef]
Onat, N. C. , Kucukvar, M. , Tatari, O. , and Egilmez, G. , 2016, “ Integration of System Dynamics Approach Toward Deepening and Broadening the Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment Framework: A Case for Electric Vehicles,” Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 21(7), pp. 1009–1034. [CrossRef]
Jiménez, P. , and Toledo, C. , 2015, “ System Dynamics Approach in LCA for PET-Renewable Raw Materials Impact,” Am. J. Oper. Res., 5(4), pp. 307–316. [CrossRef]
Wang, B. , Brême, S. , and Moon, Y. B. , 2014, “ Hybrid Modeling and Simulation for Complementing Lifecycle Assessment,” Comput. Ind. Eng., 69, pp. 77–88. [CrossRef]
Guinee, J. B. , Gorree, M. , Heijungs, R. , Huppes, G. , Kleijn, R. , Koning, A. D. , van Oers, L. , Sleeswijk, A. W. , Suh, S. , de Haes, H. , de Bruijn, H. , van Duin, R. , Huijbregts, M. , Lindeijer, E. , and Weidema, B. P. , 2002, Handbook on Life Cycle Assessment—Operational Guide to the ISO Standards, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Arvidsson, R. , Kushnir, D. , Sanden, B. A. , and Molander, S. , 2014, “ Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of Graphene Production by Ultrasonication and Chemical Reduction,” Environ. Sci. Technol., 48(8), pp. 4529–4536. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Marini, C. , and Blanc, I. , 2014, “ Towards Prospective Life Cycle Assessment: How to Identify Key Parameters Inducing Most Uncertainties in the Future? Application to Photovoltaic Systems Installed in Spain,” International Conference Proceedings on Computational Science and Its Applications (ICCSA), Guimarães, Portugal, June 30–July 3, pp. 691–706.
Lee, D. H. , Lee, D. J. , and Veziroglu, A. , 2011, “ Econometric Models for Biohydrogen Development,” Bioresour. Technol., 102(18), pp. 8475–8483. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Wing, I. S. , 2004, “ Computable General Equilibrium Models and Their Use in Economy-Wide Policy Analysis: Everything You Ever Wanted to Know (But Were Afraid to Ask),” Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, MIT, Cambridge, MA, accessed Mar. 18, 2018, http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/MITJPSPGC_TechNote6.pdf
Stasinopoulos, P. , Compston, P. , Newell, B. , and Jones, H. M. , 2012, “ A System Dynamics Approach in LCA to account for Temporal Effects—A Consequential Energy LCI of Car Body-in-Whites,” Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 17(2), pp. 199–207. [CrossRef]
Liu, X. , Mao, G. , Ren, J. , Li, R. Y. M. , Guo, J. , and Zhang, L. , 2015, “ How Might China Achieve Its 2020 Emissions Target? A Scenario Analysis of Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions Using the System Dynamics Model,” J. Cleaner Prod., 103, pp. 401–410. [CrossRef]
Du, L. , Li, X. , Zhao, H. , Ma, W. , and Jiang, P. , 2018, “ System Dynamic Modeling of Urban Carbon Emissions Based on the Regional National Economy and Social Development Plan: A Case Study of Shanghai City,” J. Cleaner Prod., 172, pp. 1501–1513. [CrossRef]
Feng, Y. Y. , Chen, S. Q. , and Zhang, L. X. , 2013, “ System Dynamics Modeling for Urban Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions: A Case Study of Beijing, China,” Ecol. Modell., 252(1), pp. 44–52. [CrossRef]
Saavedra, M. M. R. , Cristiano, C. H. , and Francisco, F. G. , 2018, “ Sustainable and Renewable Energy Supply Chain: A System Dynamics Overview,” Renewable Sustainable Energy Rev., 82, pp. 247–259. [CrossRef]
International Energy Agency, 2016, World Energy Outlook 2016, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, France.
IEA, 2015, “ China, People's Republic of: Electricity and Heat for 2015,” International Energy Agency, Paris, France, accessed Nov. 3, 2018, https://www.iea.org/statistics/statisticssearch/report/?country=CHINA&product =electricityandheat& year=2015
Zhou, L. , 2013, “ Research on Key Indicators Selecting of Low-Carbon Benefit of Smart Grid and Its Evaluation Models,” North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China.
Liu, Q. , Lei, Q. , Xu, H. , and Yuan, J. , 2018, “ China's Energy Revolution Strategy Into 2030,” Resour. Conserv. Recycl., 128, pp. 78–89. [CrossRef]
Wu, J. , 2016, “ Development Prospect of Electric Power Industry During 2015–2030,” China Electric Power Promotion Council, Beijing, China, accessed Mar. 18, 2018, http://www.chinapower.com.cn/informationzxbg/20160106/16229.html
NDRC, 2016, “ Revolutionary Strategy of Energy Production and Consumption (2016–2030),” National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing, China, accessed Mar. 20, 2018, http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/fzgggz/fzgh/ghwb/gjjgh/201705/t20170517_847664.html
NDRC, 2016, “ The 13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Renewable Energy,” National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing, China, accessed Mar. 20, 2018, http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/fzgggz/fzgh/ghwb/gjjgh/201706/t20170614_850910.html
IRENA, 2014, “ Renewable Energy Prospects: China,” International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, accessed Mar. 20, 2018, http://www.irena.org/publications/2014/Nov/Renewable-Energy-Prospects-China
IEA, 2015, “ Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy—Chinese Version,” International Energy Agency, Paris, France, accessed Mar. 20, 2018, https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/nuclear_cn.pdf
IEA, 2010, “ Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy—Foldout—Chinese Version,” International Energy Agency, Paris, France, accessed Mar. 20, 2018, https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/Technology Roadmap_ Solarphotovoltaicenergy_foldout_cn.pdf
Wiser, R. , Jenni, K. , Seel, J. , Baker, E. , Hand, M. , Lantz, E. , and Smith, A. , 2016, “ Expert Elicitation Survey on Future Wind Energy Costs,” Nat. Energy, 1(10), p. 16135.
Gutowski, T. G. , Sahni, S. , Boustani, A. , and Graves, S. C. , 2011, “ Remanufacturing and Energy Savings,” Environ. Sci. Technol., 45(10), pp. 4540–4547. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
IKE, 2018, “ EBalance,” Linkage, Chengdu, China
IEA, 2017, Renewables Information 2017: Overview, International Energy Agency, Paris, France.
Shah, V. P. , and Ries, R. J. , 2009, “ A Characterization Model With Spatial and Temporal Resolution for Life Cycle Impact Assessment of Photochemical Precursors in the United States,” Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 14(4), pp. 313–327. [CrossRef]
van Zelm, R. , Huijbregts, M. , van Jaarsveld, H. , Reinds, G. , de Zwart, D. , Struijs, J. , and van de Meent, D. , 2007, “ Time Horizon Dependent Characterization Factors for Acidification,” Environ. Sci. Technol., 41(3), pp. 922–927. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
Kendall, A. , 2012, “ Time-Adjusted Global Warming Potentials for LCA and Carbon Footprints,” Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 17(8), pp. 1042–1049. [CrossRef]
Solomon, S. , Qin, D. , Manning, M. , Chen, Z. , Marquis, M. , Averyt, K. B. , Tignor, M. , and Miller, H. L. , 2007, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
State Statistics Bureau, 2018, “Statistical Database,” National Bureau of Statistics of China, Beijing, China, http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

Figures

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 1

Overall structure of the SD model

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 2

Flow diagram of the electricity generation subsystem

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 3

Flow diagram of investment subsystem

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 4

Flow diagram of emission subsystem

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 5

Tiered structure of life cycle inventory analysis

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 6

Ratio change of each energy source in electric power

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 7

Impact potentials of different life cycle stages (updated by data from Ecoinvent)

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 8

Radiative forcing caused by the life cycle of the compressor in 100 years horizon

Tables

Errata

Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging and repositioning the boxes below.

Related Journal Articles
Related eBook Content
Topic Collections

Sorry! You do not have access to this content. For assistance or to subscribe, please contact us:

  • TELEPHONE: 1-800-843-2763 (Toll-free in the USA)
  • EMAIL: asmedigitalcollection@asme.org
Sign In