The geometric deviations of real parts pose a major challenge, particularly in the extensively automated mass production of complex assemblies. To meet this challenge, an attempt is made, with the aid of statistical tolerance analysis, to predict dimensional accuracy for various assembly concepts as precisely as possible depending on the individual part tolerances. Most recent developments enable consideration to be given to the deformability of the parts during joining in order to improve the prognostic quality of simulation. The methods that are employed reveal deficits if nonlinear effects such as contact, extensive deformations, or material inelasticities occur. In this work, contact between or with adjacent parts during joining will be investigated, and an efficient and reliable method, which can be unproblematically integrated into existing compliant assembly variation analysis programs, will be developed. To achieve this, the methods of springback calculation according to Liu (1995, “Variation Simulation for Deformable Sheet Metal Assemblies Using Mechanistic Models
,” Trans. NAMRI/SME, 23, pp. 235–241) have been extended and coupled with numerical contact mechanics methods in order to realistically portray the problem, which usually involves intensive computing, with a minimum of additional effort. The method that has been developed will be validated on the basis of two examples with the aid of nonlinear finite element analyses, the results of which can be regarded as state-of-the-art in mechanical problems involving contact. The quality of the results reveals that this method improves the quality of prognosis for a wide range of applications and, consequently, that production problems can be combated during an early development phase.