On Probabilistic Design

[+] Author and Article Information
K. V. Bury

Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B. C., Canada

J. Eng. Ind 96(4), 1291-1295 (Nov 01, 1974) (5 pages) doi:10.1115/1.3438509 History: Received January 21, 1972; Online July 15, 2010


The probabilistic approach to design is developed and contrasted with the conventional safety factor approach. A careful interpretation of random variable design inputs is given, leading to a statistical extreme-value model of loads. In addition to the “reliability” concept, the concept of “mission length” is explicitly introduced to the design process. A simple design problem, involving random variable loads and constant material properties, is solved and illustrated. Possible extensions of this design problem, and their likely difficulties, are indicated.

Copyright © 1974 by ASME
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